TEXT 

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000760

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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADD "CLASSIFIED BY" LINE

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KZ
SUBJECT: LIFESTYLES OF THE KAZAZHSTANI LEADERSHIP

ASTANA 00000760 001.4 OF 003

CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON CHIEF STEVEN FAGIN, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)

-------
Summary
-------

1. (C) Kazakhstan's political elites appear to enjoy typical
hobbies -- such as travel, horseback riding, and skiing. Not
surprisingly, however, they are able to indulge in their
hobbies on a grand scale, whether flying Elton John to
Kazakhstan for a concert or trading domestic property for a
palace in the United Arab Emirates. This cable recounts
several instances in which Embassy officers have learned of,
or witnessed, the recreational habits of Kazakhstan's
leaders. End Summary.

--------------
Sun and Horses
--------------

2. (C) President Nazarbayev, like many of his countrymen, has
a strong affinity for horses. In 2007, emboff visited the
presidential horse farm with the daughter of the farm's
manager. The farm is located on the outskirts of Astana in a
residential area, but is surrounded by a high-fence and
security guards. Inside the gates are a large stable, indoor
and outdoor riding arenas, and a clubhouse with a pool table,
sauna, and exercise room. Emboff toured the stable and saw
approximately forty horses from various parts of the world.
Emboff's companion told him that Nazarbayev visits the horse
farm on occasion, though not too frequently. She said that
Nazarbayev's wife -- Sara Nazarbayeva -- never accompanies
him, but claimed that sometimes his "second wife" comes to
the horse farm. (Comment: Most Kazakhstanis are familiar
with the rumor that Nazarbayev has a "second wife," a former
airline stewardess, who is said by some to reside in London.
More recently, there have been whispers that Nazarbayev has
yet a "third wife," a former beauty queen. We have no
concrete information about either relationship, although
Taszhargan, an opposition newspaper, printed a sympathetic
article about Sara Nazarbayeva which expounded on her status
as Nazarbayev's "co-wife." End Comment.)

3. (C) Nazarbayev is also fond of traveling to warmer climes
in the region. The UAE Ambassador told emboff that Nazarbayev
had traded property in Borovoe -- a mountainous resort area
of Kazakhstan north of Astana and sometimes likened to
Switzerland -- for a "palace" in the Emirates. He did not
make clear whether the transaction was a permanent
arrangement or only a temporary one. The head of Turkey's
liaison office in Astana, Orhan Isik, told emboff that
Nazarbayev has a mansion in Antaliya, which he visits 4-5
times a year. Isik claimed that Nazarbayev received the
property as a gift in the early 1990's and now plans to use
part of the land for the construction of a luxury hotel.

------------------------
Dancing at the Nightclub
------------------------

4. (C) On March 7, two days after his trip to the U.S. was
cancelled, Prime Minister Masimov was spotted by emboff at
Chocolat, one of Astana's trendiest nightclubs. Masimov
entered at approximately 11:30 pm, accompanied by
Presidential Administration head Kairat Kelimbetov, Astana
mayor Askar Mamin, three middle-aged Kazakh women (presumably
their wives), and a security detail. Although the club
offers a VIP area, Masimov chose to sit at a table in full
view of all of the club's patrons. Emboff lingered close to
Masimov's group and saw several bottles of alcohol on the
table. (Note: Another emboff had seen the group drinking
earlier in the evening at a cigar bar at the Radisson Hotel,
which is located in the same complex as Chocolat. End Note.)
Masimov led his companions on to Chocolat's dance floor soon
after their arrival. The dance floor holds approximately 100
people, and at the time perhaps 50 patrons were dancing.
However, Masimov himself chose to dance on an empty stage
above the dance floor. His companions quickly tired but
Masimov remained, dancing alone and animatedly on the stage
for another 15-20 minutes. At approximately 1:00 am, Masimov
and his retinue left the club.

-------------------------
Skiing with the Oligarchs
-------------------------

5. (C) In September 2007, Kazakhstani oligarch Aleksandr
Mashkevich -- the co-founder of metals and mining giant
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation and, according to

ASTANA 00000760 002.4 OF 003

CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON CHIEF STEVEN FAGIN, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)

Forbes magazine, the 334th wealthiest man in the world --
hosted a dinner at his house in Almaty for two visiting U.S.
congressmen. Only two Kazakhstanis attended the event, State
Secretary Kanat Saudabayev and his assistant. Judging from

SIPDIS
the friendly banter between Saudabayev and Mashkevich, the
two have a quite cordial personal relationship. Mashkevich
told a lengthy anecdote about a ski vacation that he and
Saudabayev had taken together in Europe.

6. (C) Saudabayev had hosted a codel at that same Almaty
residence in 2005, without Mashkevich in attendance. At that
time, when the Ambassador asked Saudabayev whose house it
was, he would only say that it belonged to "a friend."
Saudabayev has twice hosted visiting USG officials for a meal
at Mashkevich's Astana residence -- both times without
Mashkevich. It is not clear what Mashkevich is spending his
billions on, but it is certainly not culinary talent. On all
four occasions the Ambassador has eaten at one of his houses,
the menu has been similar and focused on beshparmak (boiled
meat and noodles) and plov. The wait staff appeared to be
graduates of a Soviet cafeteria training academy. The wine,
at least, was somewhat upscale with reasonably good French
vintage bottles uncorked for the guests. The Astana
residence has wooden plaques on the doors that would fit in
nicely in a Wyoming hunting lodge but are somewhat out of
touch with the upscale "Euro-remont" that is so popular among
the Kazakhstani elite.

-------------------------------
Private Concerts with the Stars
-------------------------------

7. (C) In 2007, President Nazarbayev's son-in-law, Timur
Kulibayev, celebrated his 41st birthday in grand style. At a
small venue in Almaty, he hosted a private concert with some
of Russia's biggest pop-stars. The headliner, however, was
Elton John, to whom he reportedly paid one million pounds for
this one-time appearance. (Note: The British Ambassador
relayed a slightly different story, with an unknown but
obviously well-heeled friend arranging and paying for Sir
Elton's gig. End Comment.) There have been separate
reports that Nelly FURTADO performed at the August 2007
birthday bash for Kulibayev's wife, Dinara Nazarbayeva.
Kulibayev also appears willing to spend his fortune on
others. According to Turkish diplomat Isik, when the
Kempinski group recently built luxury villas in Bodrum,
Turkey, Kulibayev bought up a number of them -- at a cost of
4-5 million dollars each -- and doled them out as gifts to
friends and family.

-----------------------
Sports and Politics Mix
-----------------------

8. (C) Sports and politics mixed seamlessly in Almaty on
April 2, when some of Kazakhstan's most prominent political
figures participated in the Beijing Olympics torch relay.
Torchbearers included President Nazarbayev, Presidential
Administration business affairs head Bolat Utemuratov, Nur
Otan party first deputy chairman Adilbek Dzhaksybekov, and
Agency for the Regulation of Natural Monopolies head Mazhit
Yesenbayev. All of these bigwigs, except Nazarbayev himself,
could justify their participation in the relay based not on
their high-ranking political offices, but rather on their
prominent official positions in the Kazakhstani sports world.
Utemeratov just happens to head Kazakhstan's Tennis
Federation, while Dzhakysbekov chairs the Football Federation
-- a position previously held by ex-Nazarbayev son-in-law
Rakhat Aliyev. Yesenbayev heads the Judo Federation.
KazMunayGaz chairman Uzakbay Karabalin, who heads the Boxing
Federation, and Nazarbayev son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, who
heads the Golf Federation, also shared in the glory of
carrying the Olympic torch. One prominent sport federation
president who missed the torch call was Defense Minister
Daniyal Akhmetov. He is head of the scandal-ridden Cycling
Federation that sponsored a team in last year's Tour de
France which flunked the drug test.

-----------------------------------
Relaxation the Good, Old Soviet Way
-----------------------------------

9. (C) Kazakhstan's political elites also have recreational
tastes that are not so exotic. Some, in fact, prefer to
relax the old-fashioned way. Defense Minister Akhmetov, a
self-proclaimed workaholic, appears to enjoy loosening up in
the tried and true "homo sovieticus" style -- i.e., drinking

ASTANA 00000760 003.4 OF 003

CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON CHIEF STEVEN FAGIN, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)

oneself into a stupor. While most of our accounts of
Akhmetov's indulgences with the bottle are hearsay, we do
have "eyes on" for one episode which supports the rumors. In
June 2007, Akhmetov showed up in grand form for a meeting
with a visiting senior U.S. Defense Department official.
Making no attempt to conceal his condition -- slouching back
in his chair and slurring all kinds of Russian participles --
Akhmetov explained to this very senior guest that he had just
been at a cadet graduation reception "toasting Kazakhstan's
newly-commissioned officers." Who was toasted more -- the
Defense Minister or the cadets -- is a matter of pure
speculation. Akhmetov's excesses do not solely extend to the
bottle. An insider at Astana's Radisson Hotel recently told
us about preparations for the unbelievably lavish and
expensive wedding of Akhmetov's son. In the Kazakh
tradition, the parents of the groom are responsible for the
wedding -- so it would seem that Akhmetov must have footed
the bill.
ORDWAY

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TRIPOLI 000208

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/MAG, INR/NESA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/4/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KCOR, ECON, MARR, MASS, PHUM, PINR, LY
SUBJECT: LIBYA'S SUCCESSION MUDDLED AS THE AL-QADHAFI CHILDREN CONDUCT INTERNECINE WARFARE
REF: A) 08 TRIPOLI 564, B) 08 TRIPOLI 592, C) TRIPOLI 198, D) 08 TRIPOLI 870 , E) 08 TRIPOLI 679, F) 08 TRIPOLI 494, G) TRIPOLI 196, H) TRIPOLI 134, I) 0 8 TRIPOLI 227

CLASSIFIED BY: Gene A. Cretz, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy - Tripoli, U.S. Dept of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 1. (C) Summary: A series of events since last summer suggest that tension between various children of Muammar al-Qadhafi has increased, XXXXXXXXXXXX. Much of the tension appears to stem from resentment of Saif al-Islam's high-profile as the public face of the regime; however, deeper tension about contradictions between Saif al-Islam's proposed political-economic reforms, XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX also play an important role. The arrest and intimidation of a number of Saif al-Islam allies since last summer, on the one hand, and moves to circumscribe Muatassim's role in military equipment procurement, on the other, suggest that the current level of discord among al-Qadhafi's children is acute. While internecine strife is nothing new for the famously fractious al-Qadhafi family, the recent escalation of tension comes during a particularly momentous period. Amid turmoil related to the 40th anniversary of the revolution, Muammar al-Qadhafi's recent election as African Union chairman, proposed political-economic reforms and persistent rumors about al-Qadhafi's health and the absence of a viable mechanism to orchestrate a succession, the sharp rivalry between the al-Qadhafi children could play an important, if not determinative role, in whether the family is able to hold on to power after the author of the revolution exits the political scene. End summary.

XXXXXXXXXXXX

3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX the arrest of Hannibal al-Qadhafi, a son of Muammar al-Qadhafi, in Geneva in mid-July (ref B subsequent) and a visit to Rome by Saadi al-Qadhafi, a son of Muammar al-Qadhafi, against his father's express wishes in early August. Hannibal and Saadi both have checkered histories of unseemly behavior and public scuffles with authorities in Europe and elsewhere. Although Muammar al-Qadhafi was reportedly fed a carefully vetted version of the events attendant to Hannibal's arrest to help minimize the perception that Hannibal was to blame, the elder al-Qadhafi was reportedly vexed that Libya, for reasons of protecting the first family's pride, had to engage in a bilateral spat with Switzerland at a time when it was trying to move ahead with negotiations for a framework agreement with the European Union. XXXXXXXXXXXX

... PROMPT AN AL-QADHAFI FAMILY MEETING

4. (C) The upshot of Muatassim's solicitation of funds, Hannibal's arrest and Saadi's jaunt was an al-Qadhafi family meeting in mid-August. Al-Qadhafi reportedly decided to reduce Sanussi's role as a minder for the most troublesome children (he is still a key adviser to Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi) and to

TRIPOLI 00000208 002 OF 005

instead assign his daughter, Aisha al-Qadhafi, the task of monitoring the activities of ne'er-do-wells Saadi, Hannibal and Saif al-Arab. (Note: The latter is the least publicly know of al-Qadhafi's children; he lives in Munich, where he pursues ill-defined business interests and spends much time partying. At the meeting, Saadi reportedly criticized his father for having ignored him, and specifically cited the fact that his (Saadi's) efforts to establish an Export Free Trade Zone near the western Libyan town of Zuwara had not enjoyed the kind of support that Muatassim's activities as National Security Adviser or Saif al-Islam's high-profile efforts under the Qadhafi Development Foundation and Libya Youth Forum. As reported ref C, Muammar al-Qadhafi subsequently made an unusual visit to Zuwara last September and significant work on the development project began within a few days of his visit. Although the Zuwara Free Trade Zone is an ambitious and expensive project, XXXXXXXXXXXX

5. XXXXXXXXXXXX have told us that Aisha played a strong role in urging a hardline Libyan position with respect to the Swiss-Libyan contretemps over Hannibal's arrest. Separately, the Swiss Ambassador told us that Aisha's less than accurate rendering to her father of the events surrounding Hannibal's arrest and treatment by Swiss authorities helped stoke Muammar al-Qadhafi's anger, limiting the extent to which Libyan and Swiss officials could maneuver to find an acceptable compromise. The Swiss have told us that in the most recent effort between the two sides to resolve the issue in Davos, Saif had approved an agreement that had the Swiss literally bending over backwards to assuage Libyan demands. After making a phone call (to either Aisha or the leader), Saif returned somewhat chastened after several minutes to rescind the aproval. The Swiss crisis, together with other points of intra-family tension, has reportedly brought Aisha, who enjoys closer relations with Hannibal than with her other brothers, together with Hannibal, Saadi and, to a lesser extent, Saif al-Arab. Muatassim reportedly agreed with the hardline approach vis a vis the Swiss and has been closer to Aisha's end of the spectrum than to that of Saif al-Islam, who urged a more moderate approach. Muhammad al-Qadhafi (the eldest son, but by al-Qadhafis' first wife) and Khamis al-Qadhafi (fifth son by al-Qadhafi's second wife and the well-respected commander of a special forces unit that effectively serves as a regime protection unit) have remained neutral. XXXXXXXXXXXX expressed frustration XXXXXXXXXXXX that Saif al-Islam had persisted in his hard-partying, womanizing ways, a source of concern in a socially conservative country like Libya.

INCREASED TENSION BETWEEN SAIF AL-ISLAM AND MUATASSIM

6. (C) Against that backdrop of tension, competition between Saif al-Islam, whom most still regard as the heir-apparent, and Muatassim, whose viability as a potential alternative successor has risen since his appointment as National Security Adviser, has increased since last fall. XXXXXXXXXXXX Saif reportedly bridled at the fact that Muatassim accompanied Muammar al-Qadhafi on the latter's visit to Moscow, Minsk and Kiev last year (ref D), and played a key role in negotiating potential weapons contracts. Muatassim (who flew back early) and his older brother Muhammad greeted Muammar al-Qadhafi at the airport upon the latter's return to Tripoli; Saif, who was in town, was pointedly absent. XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX It was further determined that Khamis al-Qadhafi would play a larger role in military procurement, since his Khamis Regiment (the 32nd Brigade) had demonstrated some success in procurement. Muatassim, whom the Serbian Ambassador described as "a bloody man" and "not terribly bright", XXXXXXXXXXXX

7. (C) Saif al-Islam's highly-publicized visit to the U.S. last November-December exacerbated tension with his siblings, particularly Muatassim, who viewed it as grandstanding. Saif al-Islam's high-profile role as the public face of the regime to the West has been a mixed blessing for him. While it has bolstered his image (he is probably the most publicly-recognized figure in Libya other than Muammar al-Qadhafi), many Libyans view him as self-aggrandizing and too eager to please foreigners at the expense of Libyans' interest. His role in the denouement of the Bulgarian nurses' case, in which he acknowledged in media interviews that the nurses had been tortured and the investigation into their alleged injection of the AIDS virus into Libyan children bungled, badly damaged his reputation. The fact that his recent visit to the U.S. came not long after his August 2008 Youth Forum address - in which he strongly criticized the existing Jamahiriya system of governance, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that most of his proposed reforms had already been achieved, and declared his intention to withdraw from political life to focus solely on civil society issues (ref E) - reportedly irritated his siblings. XXXXXXXXXXXX have suggested to us that Muatassim's desire to visit Washington this spring and his seemingly overweaning focus on having meetings with senior USG officials and signing a number of agreements are driven at least in part by a strong sense of competition with Saif al-Islam.

THE KNIVES COME OUT

8. (C) Recent events have fueled speculation that inter-sibling rivalries, and those of the more conservative regime elements they represent, have been increasing. XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

TRIPOLI 00000208 004 OF 005

9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

1 XXXXXXXXXXXX

11. (C) Comment: While internecine strife is nothing new for the famously fractious al-Qadhafi family, the recent escalation of tension between Saif al-Islam and Muatassim, Aisha, Hannibal and Saadi, comes during a particularly momentous period in the Jamahiriya's history. The 40th anniversary of the revolution on September 1, 2009, together with Muammar al-Qadhafi's recent election as Chairman of the AU (ref H), proposed political-economic reforms, consideration of a constitution, and rumored elections, have contributed to a sense that Libya is in the midst of a period of particular political turbulence. XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that a draft constitution had been finished and submitted to the General People's Committee (cabinet-equivalent) for approval, and that it could be submitted to the General People's Congress for ratification sometime this year. The UN Resident Representative recently told the Ambassador that Saif al-Islam had established a super-committee under the auspices of the Economic and Development Board to draw up plans to implement wealth distribution and privatization/government restructuring advocated by Muammar al-Qadhafi last March (ref I). XXXXXXXXXXXX Saif al-Islam's recent announcement of a regional organization that would publicly identify specific individuals who perpetrate human rights abuses and target them for sanctions has been interpreted by some local observers as a manifestation of his frustration with the slow pace of reforms

TRIPOLI 00000208 005 OF 005

and as a threat to conservative regime elements, many of whom personally played a part in the most serious transgressions of the late 1970's and 1980's.

12. (C) Comment (continued): Persistent rumors about Muammar al-Qadhafi's declining health have lent particular urgency to questions about succession scenarios, throwing into stark relief the fact that, absent a constitution, there is no legal mechanism by which to orchestrate such an endeavor and seemingly increasing the stakes for the sibling rivalry. XXXXXXXXXXXX As Libya lurches forward with the effort to balance badly needed economic reform with the appearance of some political re-structuring - all against the backdrop of looming succession issues - the sharp rivalry between the al-Qadhafi children could play an important, if not determinative role, in whether the al-Qadhafi family is able to hold on to power after Muammar al-Qadhafi exits (one way or another) the political scene. End comment. CRETZ

TEXT 

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000095

NOFORN SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/MAG AND INR/NESA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/2/2020
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, PHUM, LY
SUBJECT: QADHAFI CHILDREN SCANDALS SPILLING OVER INTO POLITICS

TRIPOLI 00000095 001.2 OF 002

CLASSIFIED BY: Gene A. Cretz, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Tripoli,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
1. (S/NF) Summary. According to a local political observer XXXXXXXXXXXX the family has been in a tailspin lately, trying to put a stop to one rumor or another, in the name of defending the family's honor. From Mutassim al-Qadhafi's headline-grabbing St. Bart's New Year's Eve bash to Hannibal's latest violent outburst, the Qadhafi
family has provided local observers with enough dirt for a Libyan soap opera. Meanwhile, as his brothers, sister, and mother scurry to cover-up scandals, Saif al-Islam seems to be strategically disengaged, traveling in New Zealand and Algeria, and focusing on Haiti relief efforts. The widening contrast between the respectable, cultured image that Saif has taken on and the spoiled, boorish image his siblings project has local audiences rallying behind Saif as the next heir to the Qadhafi throne. End Summary.

2. (S/NF) A local political observer XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that the Qadhafi family has been consumed in recent weeks by efforts to control the damage from Mutassim and Hannibal's recent headline-grabbing behavior. National Security Advisor Mutassim al-Qadhafi kicked off 2010 in the same way he spent 2009 -- with a New Year's Eve trip to St. Bart's -- reportedly featuring copious amounts of alcohol and a million-dollar personal concert courtesy of BEYONCE, Usher, and other musicians. Mutassim seemed to be surprised by the fact that his party was photographed and the focus of international media attention.
XXXXXXXXXXXX, his carousing and extravagance angered some locals, who viewed his activities as impious and embarrassing to the nation. Others took the events and rumors surrounding it as further argument that Mutassim -- often considered to be a rival of brother Saif al-Islam to succeed his father -- is not fit to be the next leader of the country. The Egyptian ambassador recently told the Ambassador that the Egyptians had been bracing for retribution after an Egyptian newspaper published the report of Mutassim's carousing.

3. (S/NF) Days before Mutassim's extravagant display, international press reported that his brother Hannibal had physically abused his wife, Aline, in a London hotel room over Christmas. XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that Aline had threatened to leave Hannibal a few weeks before the incident and had fled to London. When Safiya, Hannibal's mother, heard the news, she pleaded with Aline by phone to return to Tripoli, promising to
give her "whatever she desired," in exchange. Hannibal pursued Aline in London, and the encounter ended in assault. When Safiya and Hannibal's sister, Ayesha al-Qadhafi (at that time many months' pregnant), heard the news, Ayesha traveled to London to intervene. Both Qadhafi women -- Safiya by phone and Ayesha in person -- advised Aline to report to the police that she had been hurt in an "accident," and not to mention anything about abuse. London press reported that Hannibal was allowed to leave the UK discreetly, on diplomatic immunity.

4. (S/NF) In the meantime, heir-apparent Saif al-Islam has been opportunely disengaged from local affairs. According to his staff and press reports, Saif celebrated the New Year far away from Tripoli in a small New Zealand town of 8,000 people, on a hunting trip. He spent a week in mid-January hunting as well, in Western Algeria, according to Algerian press. Saif's Qadhafi International Charity and Development Foundation has recently been active in the Haiti relief effort, sending hundreds of tons of supplies. Saif al-Islam's inner circle has been officially dismissive of any reports that he may accept the "General
Coordinator" position to which he was appointed by his father in early October. XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that Saif did not want to be "tainted" by the current political environment.

5. (C) Young Libyan contacts have repeated over the last few weeks that Saif al-Islam is the "hope" of "Libya al-Ghad" (Libya of tomorrow), with men in their twenties saying that they aspire to be like Saif and think he is the right person to run the country. They describe him as educated, cultured, and someone who wants a better future for Libya. By comparison, when asked about the prospects of Mutassim, Hannibal, or the other brothers as leaders of country, young contacts shake their heads and point to their famously irresponsible behavior as more reason to hope that Saif will succeed his father.

6. (S/NF) Comment: Amidst the Qadhafi family antics, Saif al-Islam has wisely distanced himself from the local drama. While no stranger to the playboy lifestyle himself, Saif has managed to keep international press coverage of his activities benign. Saif seems to be making progress in casting himself as a humanitarian, philanthropist, and reformer. In so doing,
TRIPOLI 00000095 002.2 OF 002

Libyans cannot help but to contrast his brothers' spoiled behavior with the mature, respectable image that Saif projects. If Saif al-Islam does intend to accept an official role in the near future, domestic audiences -- particularly among Libya's swelling ranks of young adults -- may welcome him as Libya's knight in shining armor. End comment. CRETZ

TEXT 

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TRIPOLI 000208

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/MAG, INR/NESA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/4/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KCOR, ECON, MARR, MASS, PHUM, PINR, LY
SUBJECT: LIBYA'S SUCCESSION MUDDLED AS THE AL-QADHAFI CHILDREN CONDUCT INTERNECINE WARFARE
REF: A) 08 TRIPOLI 564, B) 08 TRIPOLI 592, C) TRIPOLI 198, D) 08 TRIPOLI 870 , E) 08 TRIPOLI 679, F) 08 TRIPOLI 494, G) TRIPOLI 196, H) TRIPOLI 134, I) 0 8 TRIPOLI 227

CLASSIFIED BY: Gene A. Cretz, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy - Tripoli, U.S. Dept of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 1. (C) Summary: A series of events since last summer suggest that tension between various children of Muammar al-Qadhafi has increased, XXXXXXXXXXXX. Much of the tension appears to stem from resentment of Saif al-Islam's high-profile as the public face of the regime; however, deeper tension about contradictions between Saif al-Islam's proposed political-economic reforms, XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX also play an important role. The arrest and intimidation of a number of Saif al-Islam allies since last summer, on the one hand, and moves to circumscribe Muatassim's role in military equipment procurement, on the other, suggest that the current level of discord among al-Qadhafi's children is acute. While internecine strife is nothing new for the famously fractious al-Qadhafi family, the recent escalation of tension comes during a particularly momentous period. Amid turmoil related to the 40th anniversary of the revolution, Muammar al-Qadhafi's recent election as African Union chairman, proposed political-economic reforms and persistent rumors about al-Qadhafi's health and the absence of a viable mechanism to orchestrate a succession, the sharp rivalry between the al-Qadhafi children could play an important, if not determinative role, in whether the family is able to hold on to power after the author of the revolution exits the political scene. End summary.

XXXXXXXXXXXX

3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX the arrest of Hannibal al-Qadhafi, a son of Muammar al-Qadhafi, in Geneva in mid-July (ref B subsequent) and a visit to Rome by Saadi al-Qadhafi, a son of Muammar al-Qadhafi, against his father's express wishes in early August. Hannibal and Saadi both have checkered histories of unseemly behavior and public scuffles with authorities in Europe and elsewhere. Although Muammar al-Qadhafi was reportedly fed a carefully vetted version of the events attendant to Hannibal's arrest to help minimize the perception that Hannibal was to blame, the elder al-Qadhafi was reportedly vexed that Libya, for reasons of protecting the first family's pride, had to engage in a bilateral spat with Switzerland at a time when it was trying to move ahead with negotiations for a framework agreement with the European Union. XXXXXXXXXXXX

... PROMPT AN AL-QADHAFI FAMILY MEETING

4. (C) The upshot of Muatassim's solicitation of funds, Hannibal's arrest and Saadi's jaunt was an al-Qadhafi family meeting in mid-August. Al-Qadhafi reportedly decided to reduce Sanussi's role as a minder for the most troublesome children (he is still a key adviser to Saif al-Islam al-Qadhafi) and to

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instead assign his daughter, Aisha al-Qadhafi, the task of monitoring the activities of ne'er-do-wells Saadi, Hannibal and Saif al-Arab. (Note: The latter is the least publicly know of al-Qadhafi's children; he lives in Munich, where he pursues ill-defined business interests and spends much time partying. At the meeting, Saadi reportedly criticized his father for having ignored him, and specifically cited the fact that his (Saadi's) efforts to establish an Export Free Trade Zone near the western Libyan town of Zuwara had not enjoyed the kind of support that Muatassim's activities as National Security Adviser or Saif al-Islam's high-profile efforts under the Qadhafi Development Foundation and Libya Youth Forum. As reported ref C, Muammar al-Qadhafi subsequently made an unusual visit to Zuwara last September and significant work on the development project began within a few days of his visit. Although the Zuwara Free Trade Zone is an ambitious and expensive project, XXXXXXXXXXXX

5. XXXXXXXXXXXX have told us that Aisha played a strong role in urging a hardline Libyan position with respect to the Swiss-Libyan contretemps over Hannibal's arrest. Separately, the Swiss Ambassador told us that Aisha's less than accurate rendering to her father of the events surrounding Hannibal's arrest and treatment by Swiss authorities helped stoke Muammar al-Qadhafi's anger, limiting the extent to which Libyan and Swiss officials could maneuver to find an acceptable compromise. The Swiss have told us that in the most recent effort between the two sides to resolve the issue in Davos, Saif had approved an agreement that had the Swiss literally bending over backwards to assuage Libyan demands. After making a phone call (to either Aisha or the leader), Saif returned somewhat chastened after several minutes to rescind the aproval. The Swiss crisis, together with other points of intra-family tension, has reportedly brought Aisha, who enjoys closer relations with Hannibal than with her other brothers, together with Hannibal, Saadi and, to a lesser extent, Saif al-Arab. Muatassim reportedly agreed with the hardline approach vis a vis the Swiss and has been closer to Aisha's end of the spectrum than to that of Saif al-Islam, who urged a more moderate approach. Muhammad al-Qadhafi (the eldest son, but by al-Qadhafis' first wife) and Khamis al-Qadhafi (fifth son by al-Qadhafi's second wife and the well-respected commander of a special forces unit that effectively serves as a regime protection unit) have remained neutral. XXXXXXXXXXXX expressed frustration XXXXXXXXXXXX that Saif al-Islam had persisted in his hard-partying, womanizing ways, a source of concern in a socially conservative country like Libya.

INCREASED TENSION BETWEEN SAIF AL-ISLAM AND MUATASSIM

6. (C) Against that backdrop of tension, competition between Saif al-Islam, whom most still regard as the heir-apparent, and Muatassim, whose viability as a potential alternative successor has risen since his appointment as National Security Adviser, has increased since last fall. XXXXXXXXXXXX Saif reportedly bridled at the fact that Muatassim accompanied Muammar al-Qadhafi on the latter's visit to Moscow, Minsk and Kiev last year (ref D), and played a key role in negotiating potential weapons contracts. Muatassim (who flew back early) and his older brother Muhammad greeted Muammar al-Qadhafi at the airport upon the latter's return to Tripoli; Saif, who was in town, was pointedly absent. XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX It was further determined that Khamis al-Qadhafi would play a larger role in military procurement, since his Khamis Regiment (the 32nd Brigade) had demonstrated some success in procurement. Muatassim, whom the Serbian Ambassador described as "a bloody man" and "not terribly bright", XXXXXXXXXXXX

7. (C) Saif al-Islam's highly-publicized visit to the U.S. last November-December exacerbated tension with his siblings, particularly Muatassim, who viewed it as grandstanding. Saif al-Islam's high-profile role as the public face of the regime to the West has been a mixed blessing for him. While it has bolstered his image (he is probably the most publicly-recognized figure in Libya other than Muammar al-Qadhafi), many Libyans view him as self-aggrandizing and too eager to please foreigners at the expense of Libyans' interest. His role in the denouement of the Bulgarian nurses' case, in which he acknowledged in media interviews that the nurses had been tortured and the investigation into their alleged injection of the AIDS virus into Libyan children bungled, badly damaged his reputation. The fact that his recent visit to the U.S. came not long after his August 2008 Youth Forum address - in which he strongly criticized the existing Jamahiriya system of governance, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that most of his proposed reforms had already been achieved, and declared his intention to withdraw from political life to focus solely on civil society issues (ref E) - reportedly irritated his siblings. XXXXXXXXXXXX have suggested to us that Muatassim's desire to visit Washington this spring and his seemingly overweaning focus on having meetings with senior USG officials and signing a number of agreements are driven at least in part by a strong sense of competition with Saif al-Islam.

THE KNIVES COME OUT

8. (C) Recent events have fueled speculation that inter-sibling rivalries, and those of the more conservative regime elements they represent, have been increasing. XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX

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9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

1 XXXXXXXXXXXX

11. (C) Comment: While internecine strife is nothing new for the famously fractious al-Qadhafi family, the recent escalation of tension between Saif al-Islam and Muatassim, Aisha, Hannibal and Saadi, comes during a particularly momentous period in the Jamahiriya's history. The 40th anniversary of the revolution on September 1, 2009, together with Muammar al-Qadhafi's recent election as Chairman of the AU (ref H), proposed political-economic reforms, consideration of a constitution, and rumored elections, have contributed to a sense that Libya is in the midst of a period of particular political turbulence. XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that a draft constitution had been finished and submitted to the General People's Committee (cabinet-equivalent) for approval, and that it could be submitted to the General People's Congress for ratification sometime this year. The UN Resident Representative recently told the Ambassador that Saif al-Islam had established a super-committee under the auspices of the Economic and Development Board to draw up plans to implement wealth distribution and privatization/government restructuring advocated by Muammar al-Qadhafi last March (ref I). XXXXXXXXXXXX Saif al-Islam's recent announcement of a regional organization that would publicly identify specific individuals who perpetrate human rights abuses and target them for sanctions has been interpreted by some local observers as a manifestation of his frustration with the slow pace of reforms

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and as a threat to conservative regime elements, many of whom personally played a part in the most serious transgressions of the late 1970's and 1980's.

12. (C) Comment (continued): Persistent rumors about Muammar al-Qadhafi's declining health have lent particular urgency to questions about succession scenarios, throwing into stark relief the fact that, absent a constitution, there is no legal mechanism by which to orchestrate such an endeavor and seemingly increasing the stakes for the sibling rivalry. XXXXXXXXXXXX As Libya lurches forward with the effort to balance badly needed economic reform with the appearance of some political re-structuring - all against the backdrop of looming succession issues - the sharp rivalry between the al-Qadhafi children could play an important, if not determinative role, in whether the al-Qadhafi family is able to hold on to power after Muammar al-Qadhafi exits (one way or another) the political scene. End comment. CRETZ